Will “Threat” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Threat” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 25, 2026.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Threat
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…have tried to lock out Non-legacy media. They've seen it as a threat to themselves, and we actually think that it's an amazing way to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…March that the goal of this war was to, quote, eliminate the threat of Iran's short range ballistic missiles. You just said earlier that the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…our most vulnerable citizens in America, do not walk away from this threat, run away from us because we're coming after you. All right. I've…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | Threat |  Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Threat” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Threat” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Threat” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Threat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/threat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=threat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP