Will “Thanksgiving” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Thanksgiving” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (67%), most recently on Dec 1, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Thanksgiving
- Probability
- 45% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | Thanksgiving |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Thanksgiving |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Thanksgiving | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Thanksgiving | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Thanksgiving” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Thanksgiving” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (67%), most recently on Dec 1, 2025.
- What is the probability “Thanksgiving” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Thanksgiving’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/thanksgiving (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=thanksgiving · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP