Will “Tariff” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 1, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Tariff 5+ times
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…over security interests in Greenland. President Trump has used the power of tariffs to stop China from producing fentanyl precursor chemicals. Those -- the fentanyl…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a job, then we are going to charge you a big fat tariff on anything you try to send back into the United States of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Thanks, Karoline. So Friday, the Section 122, the 10 percent global tariff, goes away. Is the President going to ask Congress for an extension or…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Tariff 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (50%), most recently on Apr 1, 2025.
- What is the probability “Tariff 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Tariff 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/tariff-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=tariff%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP