Will “Sanction” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Sanction” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 27, 2025 (43%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Sanction
- Probability
- 38% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…they are found to have stolen American IP? Does he want to sanction them? Or what actions can be taken without undermining broader U.S.-China trade…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a cent of money to Iran, and even the economic benefits, the sanctions relief and so forth that comes along with this bargain, only happens…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you, Mr. Secretary. Is it in the US interest to waive some sanctions on Iran or to unfreeze some of their assets before Iran has…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Sanction” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Sanction” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 27, 2025 (43%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025.
- What is the probability “Sanction” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Sanction’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/sanction (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=sanction · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP