Will “Pope” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Pope” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.

36%from settlement history only · n=4counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
role: press secretary

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Pope

Probability
36% · n=4
Settled
2/4 (50%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

The PressreporterVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 23:36In transcript

Sir, have you seen the Pope's reaction to this?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Apr 15, 2026PopeKalshiNo0
May 22, 2025PopeKalshiNo0
May 19, 2025PopeKalshiYes2
Apr 22, 2025PopeKalshiYes3

Questions

How often is “Pope” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Pope” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2025.
What is the probability “Pope” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
36%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Pope’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/pope (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=pope · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP