Will “Intelligence” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Intelligence” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 27, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Intelligence
- Probability
- 43% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…since 2024, these individuals who worked for the services of the Russian intelligence community, were charged with financing terrorism and conspiring to commit murder for…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…missiles. You just said earlier that the military program is destroyed. US Intelligence estimates that Iran still retains roughly 70 percent of its pre-war ballistic…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…respond to any of the criticism from Republicans on President Trump's decision to tap Bill Pulte, who has no known intelligence experience, as acting DNI?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2025 | Intelligence |  Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Intelligence | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Intelligence” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Intelligence” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jun 27, 2025.
- What is the probability “Intelligence” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Intelligence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/intelligence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=intelligence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP