Will “ID / Identification” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ID / Identification” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 10, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
ID / Identification
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…spoke about this and there was a very loud applause from the people in the audience the everyday Americans because voter ID is common sense.
…American people love the SAVE America Act because they believe in voter ID? But how many of those same senators don't want to vote for…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…They just need to have a Medicare beneficiary number or some other ID, which is basically a credit card, and they can begin charging against…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | ID / Identification |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “ID / Identification” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “ID / Identification” was said at the White House press briefing on 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 10, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “ID / Identification” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘ID / Identification’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/id-or-identification (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=id%20%2F%20identification · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP