Will “Hamas / Hezbollah” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Hamas / Hezbollah” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Hamas / Hezbollah
- Probability
- 36% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…right of self-defense. Israel doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or drones at Israel. The Iranians don't give up the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Hezbollah / Hamas | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Hamas / Hezbollah” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Hamas / Hezbollah” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hamas / Hezbollah” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Hamas / Hezbollah’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/hama-or-hezbollah (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=hama%20%2F%20hezbollah · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP