Will “Fed / Federal Reserve” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Fed / Federal Reserve” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 13, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Fed / Federal Reserve
- Probability
- 35% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…rest of the administration on down, is that we believe that the Fed should be lowering interest rates. We feel quite confident that, if you…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…about this within the last hour? I mean, does he essentially seem fed up with these negotiations? And can you explain why the American people…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Real GDP has risen 2.6 percent over the past four quarters. Atlanta Fed's GDP Now predicts 3.8 percent for this quarter, second quarter. The US…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Fed / Federal Reserve” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Fed / Federal Reserve” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 13, 2025 (33%), most recently on Aug 13, 2025.
- What is the probability “Fed / Federal Reserve” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Fed / Federal Reserve’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/fed-or-federal-reserve (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=fed%20%2F%20federal%20reserve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP