Will “Drone” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Drone” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (17%), most recently on Jun 3, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Drone
- Probability
- 38% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Yesterday, Iran launched a drone attack against US facilities in Erbil, threatening American personnel and the Kurdistan region, one of the American closest partners in…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or drones at Israel. The Iranians don't give up the right of self-defense in…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…over the last several days and also with the US attacking Iranian drones yesterday. This morning, CENTCOM put out a statement that Iran had launched…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Drone” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Drone” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 20, 2025 (17%), most recently on Jun 3, 2025.
- What is the probability “Drone” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Drone’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/drone (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=drone · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP