Will “Deportation” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deportation” was said at the White House press briefing on 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 1, 2025 (62%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Deportation
- Probability
- 44% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
On the first one, were you or the president involved in the deportation of Milo Yiannopoulos? And when did you learn about that activity? And…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
While this work is far from finished, the border is secure and deportations will continue. With that, I'll take your questions today. I look forward…
…as of today? And, you know, it's kind of like fish in a barrel, are these people being referred to immigration for prosecution and deportation?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2025 | Deportation |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 3, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| May 29, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 9, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 1, 2025 | Deportation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Deportation” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deportation” was said at the White House press briefing on 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 1, 2025 (62%), most recently on Jul 31, 2025.
- What is the probability “Deportation” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Deportation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/deportation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=deportation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP