Will “Deal” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deal” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (33%), most recently on May 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Deal
- Probability
- 39% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…because energy security is national security. President Trump secured the biggest oil deal in world history, delivering the US majority control of more than 65…
…have a great relationship and they're -- they get along, they make deals together but does that -- are they're separate issues with actors in…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…I want to talk about a little bit is the Venezuela oil deal, which I know some of you will have questions on, but I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…read it for those at home who missed it. The civil nuclear deal, there will be no enrichment of material. An important point being made…
…United States of America and express that they want to make a deal with us because they are suffering devastating blows on behalf of our…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Deal” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Deal” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 16, 2025 (33%), most recently on May 22, 2025.
- What is the probability “Deal” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/deal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=deal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP