Will “Criminal” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Criminal” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 22, 2025.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
Criminal
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…weeks, our HSF platform has been extraordinarily successful, arresting over 250 violent criminals, many with outstanding warrants and extensive criminal history. And they've taken over…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…decisions, and the Biden administration was treating them like they were convicted criminals. We're not doing that. We're taking things in a much different direction.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Again, let me reiterate the 14th straight month not a single illegal criminal alien has been entered into our country, released into our country by…
…in different parts of the country. And we believe there are organized criminal groups behind some of these endeavors. So, I want to walk you…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2025 | Criminal |  Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
Questions
- How often is “Criminal” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Criminal” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 22, 2025.
- What is the probability “Criminal” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP