Will “China” be said 5+ times at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “China” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
China 5+ times
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in Greenland. President Trump has used the power of tariffs to stop China from producing fentanyl precursor chemicals. Those -- the fentanyl killed many of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and criminals and thieves. The government has made it very clear that China has been stealing from our AI companies, so is it time to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…two months? And also, second part of the question, if Democrats do take control of Congress, then do we lose the AI race to China?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…opportunity for communities across this country. All while cementing America's dominance over China in the global AI race. The President is ensuring the American people…
…US is the AI leader in the world; we're an AI superpower. China is second, they are trailing substantially. We want to make sure that…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2025 | China 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 2 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | China 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often is “China 5+ times” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “China” was said 5+ times at the White House press briefing on 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 9, 2025.
- What is the probability “China 5+ times” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘China 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/china-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=china%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP