Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 3, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during events with Polish president on September 3?
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Women's Sports / Transgender | Yes | 49%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Congo | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Percent 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 5+ times | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Congratulate / Congratulations | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obliterate / Obliteration | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal / Illegally | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden's War | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nazi / Hitler | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Natural Gas / Nord Stream | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 7%n=112 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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