Will Donald Trump say “Stupid people”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid people” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 21, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Dec 20, 2025
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stupid people
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…America. Take the take them off and watch everybody say bye-bye you stupid people. But uh but the fake news was just killing me because…
…This is only in America. Only in stupid America. That's run by stupid people. They fix their truck, sir. They got five years in jail.…
…do something horrendous. So, let's say we did what a lot of stupid people wanted me to do, a lot of really stupid people. I…
…billion on top of it. The deals we made were done by stupid people. I've been talking to President Putin about Mr. Hubbard. I've been…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Stupid people |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stupid people”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid people” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stupid people” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stupid people’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stupid-people (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stupid%20people · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP