Will Donald Trump say “State of the Union”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “State of the Union” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
State of the Union
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | State of the Union |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | State of the Union | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 27, 2026 | State of the Union | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “State of the Union”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “State of the Union” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (67%), most recently on Feb 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “State of the Union” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘State of the Union’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/state-of-the-union (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=state%20of%20the%20union · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP