Will Donald Trump say “Home Run”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Home Run” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 21, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Home Run
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Greg Stwie. Where's Greg? Where's Greg? The only man to hit a home run ever in the in the game between the Democrats and the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Home Run”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Home Run” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 21, 2025 (100%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Home Run” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Home Run’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/home-run (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=home%20run · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP