Will Donald Trump say “Fat Shot”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fat Shot” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 32¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fat Shot
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2025 | Fat Shot |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fat Shot”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fat Shot” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 30, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fat Shot” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fat Shot’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fat-shot (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fat%20shot · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP