Will Donald Trump say “Fake”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fake” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 28, 2025.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fake
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 4 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I mean, when you look outside and you have and I have to be careful because the fake news will say if I'm wrong, you
…She wasn't sure. So, it's not looking good because she used the fake name to be sworn in. I assume she must immediately have to…
…sending your grandmother fraudulent links. They're the ones emailing your mom with fake emergencies that don't really exist. And they're the ones impersonating law enforcement…
…I'd send him every time. Would you like to do Meet the Fake Press? Would you like to do FA? Well, how about Face the…
…-- 562,000 fraudulent loans. And we cut off funding to hundreds of fake hospice facilities that stole an estimated $1.4 billion, and that number you…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | Fake |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fake”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Fake” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 28, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fake” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fake’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fake (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fake · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP