Will Donald Trump say “Birth / Birthday”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Birth / Birthday” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 13, 2026.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Birth / Birthday
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…child, starting with a thousand dollars from the federal government at the birth of the child. They start off with a thousand. And when that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Birth / Birthday |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Birth / Birthday”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Birth / Birthday” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Feb 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Birth / Birthday” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Birth / Birthday’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/birth-or-birthday (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=birth%20%2F%20birthday · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP