What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Young / Youth” next time?

25%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Young / Youth”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Young / Youth” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Young / Youth” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

25%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 15:40 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Young / Youth

Probability: 25% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

Now, 70 years ago, when Edenwald Houses was first built, a young family, the Gonzalezes, moved from Manhattan into an apartment on the campus where…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…of you has poured that pain into purpose. The purpose of mentoring young people and those who are struggling; the purpose of providing them the…

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

This city is a magnet for young people in their 20s. Young people in their 20s, whether they grew up here or come from elsewhere,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Anthony Shorris, President and CEO, Economic Development CorporationotherMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

It means training. It means partnerships. It means routes for young people, a CUNY student or someone changing careers, to find a place in this…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Council Member Lincoln RestlerotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…how much we depend on the nonprofit sector. From senior services to youth services, from the homeless to the homebound, to amazing cultural organizations like…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.