Will Zohran Mamdani say “Transgender”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Transgender” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 rallies we have transcripts for (Apr 12, 2026 – May 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
Transgender
- Probability
- 29% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 3 rallies
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2025 | Transgender |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “Transgender”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Transgender” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Transgender” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/transgender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP