What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Progressive” next time?

25%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Progressive”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Progressive” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Progressive” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

25%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 23:54 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Progressive

Probability: 25% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…political project in New York, and do you plan on showing any kind of public support for other Democratic or progressive candidates for the midterms?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.