What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Homeless / Shelter” next time?

64%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Homeless / Shelter”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Homeless / Shelter” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Homeless / Shelter” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 21, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

64%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
Streak: said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 06:20 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Homeless / Shelter

Probability: 64% · n=3
Settled: 3/3 (100%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Council Member Lincoln RestlerotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…capacity at our human services agencies to be able to process bigger contracts for homeless services shelters, with cultural organizations, et cetera, much more quickly.

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.