What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Federal” next time?

48%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Federal”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Federal” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Federal” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (60%), most recently on Mar 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

48%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 09:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Federal

Probability: 48% · n=5
Settled: 3/5 (60%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Deputy Mayor Julie Su, Economic JusticeotherMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…university, will train in these labs, too. And at a time when federal investments in science are shrinking, New York is investing in it. And…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…Palestinians. And that as Americans we have a special responsibility given our federal government's complicity in funding so much of the weaponry that has been…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

There is no explanation for these tactics. There is no explanation for federal officers firing this many rounds into a car that has a 5-year-old…