What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Crime” next time?

37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Crime”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Crime” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Crime” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 rallies we have transcripts for (Apr 12, 2026 – May 29, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

37%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 15:19 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Crime

Probability: 37% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 3 rallies: said in 0 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…Up. And he told me that he was the victim of a crime and he was in the hospital. And someone visited him there at…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…the subways to complain about the shooting that happened and about subway crime. Do you think that's a fair thing to do in this campaign,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Anthony Shorris, President and CEO, Economic Development CorporationotherMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…you brought to the whole town; to Julie Su, my partner in crime on all matters; and to my good friends from NYU, especially Linda…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…that when we are commemorating the anniversary, three years of horrific war crimes, three years since Hamas killed more than 1,100 Israelis and abducted hundreds…