What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Ballot” next time?

42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Ballot”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Ballot” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Ballot” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 22, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

42%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 04:22 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Ballot

Probability: 42% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

And across these five ballot initiatives, you have initiatives that would take, for example, a current state of play where, to build more housing, you…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Appears on Univision's ¡Despierta América! · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…say if you're a family in Corona that owns a restaurant. These ballot proposals are about whether or not you can get outdoor dining faster.…