Will US Supreme Court say “National Security”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, US Supreme Court said “National Security” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 6, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any justice
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
US Supreme Court
National Security
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: any justice
We don’t have transcripts for US Supreme Court yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No |
| Nov 6, 2025 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does US Supreme Court say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, US Supreme Court said “National Security” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 6, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 6, 2025.
- What is the probability US Supreme Court says “National Security” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any justice.
Cite parrot.markets, “US Supreme Court: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/us-supreme-court/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=us-supreme-court&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=us-supreme-court&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP