US Supreme Court: Hearing, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What the Supreme Court Justices say during the asylum seekers hearing?
Markets
15 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: any justice Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refugee | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Birthright | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border Patrol | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Capacity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Checkpoint | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child / Children | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Due Process | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Haitian Centers | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prison / Jail | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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