US Supreme Court: Hearing, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will the Supreme Court Justices say during the Trump birthright citizenship hearing?
Markets
14 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any justice Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution / Constitutional | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Precedent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Slaughter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tourist / Tourism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wong Kim | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Amicus | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospital | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maternity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stateless | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSCOTUSMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP