What is the probability US Supreme Court says “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” next time?

51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any justice.

Will US Supreme Court say “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional”?

Name: US Supreme Court: “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, US Supreme Court said “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 23, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

51%from settlement history only · n=3counts: any justice

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any justice

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 01:49 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

US Supreme Court

Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional

Probability: 51% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)

Next listing counts: any justice

We don’t have transcripts for US Supreme Court yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the Supreme Court Justices say during the Trump birthright citizenship hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the Supreme Court Justices say during the hearing on last-mile delivery? · settled no

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What the Supreme Court Justices say during the asylum seekers hearing? · settled yes

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What will the Supreme Court say during the Mail in Ballot hearing? · settled yes

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What will the Supreme Court Justices say during the tariff cases against Trump? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Mar 26, 2026	Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional	Kalshi	No
Mar 25, 2026	Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional	Kalshi	Yes
Mar 23, 2026	Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does US Supreme Court say “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional”?: As of Oct 26, 2026, US Supreme Court said “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 23, 2026 (67%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026.
What is the probability US Supreme Court says “Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional” next time?: 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: any justice.

Cite parrot.markets, “US Supreme Court: ‘Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/us-supreme-court/words/constitution-or-constitutional-or-unconstitutional (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=us-supreme-court&word=constitution%20%2F%20constitutional%20%2F%20unconstitutional · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=us-supreme-court&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP