Steve Hilton: Debate, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Steve Hilton say during the CA Governor Debate?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEQA / Environmental | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Florida / Texas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fox | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Swalwell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHILTONMENTION-26APR22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP