Will Steve Hilton say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Steve Hilton said “Fraud” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
36%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Steve Hilton
Fraud
- Probability
- 36% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Steve Hilton yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Steve Hilton say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Steve Hilton said “Fraud” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 22, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Steve Hilton says “Fraud” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Steve Hilton: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/steve-hilton/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=steve-hilton&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=steve-hilton&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP