Steve Hilton: Debate, May 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Steve Hilton say during the California gubernatorial debate?
Markets
14 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Refinery | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California Dream | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Electric / EV | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iraq / Iraqi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mental Health | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crisis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flat Tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHILTONMENTION-26MAY05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP