Steve Hilton: Interview, Oct 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Steve Hilton say during Saturday in America?
Markets
15 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| California Dream | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pratt | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wildfire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHILTONMENTION-26OCT17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP