Nancy Pelosi: Speech, Aug 21, 2024
Polymarket What will Nancy Pelosi say during DNC speech?
Markets
16 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| January 6 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe Biden 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Antisemitism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Convicted felon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donald Trump 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stocks | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank you 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weird/Weirdo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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