What is the probability Howard Lutnick says “Iran / Iranian” next time?

34%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Howard Lutnick say “Iran / Iranian”?

Name: Howard Lutnick: “Iran / Iranian” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Howard Lutnick did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

34%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 13:48 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Howard Lutnick

Iran / Iranian

Probability: 34% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Howard Lutnick yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Howard Lutnick say during the Dept of Commerce Budget Hearing? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Howard Lutnick say during Semafor World Economy 2026? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Howard Lutnick say during his Keynote on Securing Critical Minerals? · not listed

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What will Howard Lutnick say on Face the Nation? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 23, 2026	Iran / Iranian	Kalshi	No
Apr 17, 2026	Iran / Iranian	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Howard Lutnick say “Iran / Iranian”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Howard Lutnick did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026.
What is the probability Howard Lutnick says “Iran / Iranian” next time?: 34%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Howard Lutnick: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/howard-lutnick/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=howard-lutnick&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=howard-lutnick&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP