Howard Lutnick: Keynote, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Howard Lutnick say during his Keynote on Securing Critical Minerals?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invested / Investment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing / Manufacture | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Davos | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Domestic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLUTNICKFTNMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP