Howard Lutnick: Keynote, Apr 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Howard Lutnick say during Semafor World Economy 2026?
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trillion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLUTNICKFTNMENTION-26APR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP