Howard Lutnick: Hearing, Apr 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Howard Lutnick say during the Dept of Commerce Budget Hearing?
Markets
15 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NOAA / National Weather Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLUTNICKFTNMENTION-26APR23 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP