Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on TBPN next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was not said on TBPN in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TBPN
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 27% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we believe we have bought it. And we believe that we can shut down distillation. Pretty staggering that five to 7%, you know, that that's…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on TBPN?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was not said on TBPN in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 29, 2025.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on TBPN next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “TBPN: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/tbpn/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tbpn&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tbpn&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP