TBPN: Episode, Dec 4, 2025
On the Dec 4, 2025 episode of TBPN, 1 of the 18 words Polymarket listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 18 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 1 settled yes · our count agreed on 18 of 18- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia / AMD 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 18 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Money 20+ times | No | 3 | 41 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI Bubble | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin 4+ times | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Booyah | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Capex | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diddy / SBF | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed Chair | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Time to Buy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inverse Cramer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mamdani | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Michael / Burry | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nasty / Nastiness | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Polymarket | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategy | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tremendous 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 2+ times | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Who does health care and, you know, in NVIDIA, say. Yeah. That person doesn't they're not you know, Bristol Myers isn't get me here. Get…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2025-12-04:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2025-12-04:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP