TBPN: Episode, Jul 23, 2026
On the Jul 23, 2026 episode of TBPN, 4 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | 5 | 17 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Helios | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 1 | 11 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Accelerator | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | 0 | 36 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hugging Face | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Intel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSMC / Taiwan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPublisher transcript · TBPN podcast transcript (publisher RSS) · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
know, Tom Brown of Anthropic with us, you know, Santosh of Meta, Sachin of OpenAI, you know you know, Germany at AT and T. Yeah.…
…of years and years of work. You You you think about launching Helios, you think about launching Venice, you think about bringing together the entire…
…another place where, you know, we just launched these, you know, small robotics form factors so that people can can experiment with it. So I…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tbpn:2026-07-23:podcast_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tbpn:2026-07-23:podcast_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP