Nick Shirley: Interview, Apr 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Nick Shirley say during NewsMax: Finnerty?
Markets
12 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Learing | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Daycare / Day Care | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billion | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSHIRLEYMENTION-26APR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP