Nick Shirley: Interview, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Nick Shirley on Fox News: Gutfeld!
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Learing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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