Nick Shirley: Speech, Mar 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Nick Shirley say during his CPAC speech?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Learing | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Daycare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billion | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSHIRLEYMENTION-26MAR26B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP