Dan Bongino: Episode, Feb 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Dan Bongino say during his show?
Markets
15 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grifter / Grifting | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blackpill / Blackpiller | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deep State | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Walz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| J6 / January 6 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBONGINOMENTION-26FEB03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP