Dan Bongino: Episode, Feb 10, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Dan Bongino on Hannity
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ransom | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blackpill / Blackpiller | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bad Bunny | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Podcast | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBONGINOMENTION-26FEB10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP