Will “Closed source” be said on All-In Podcast next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Closed source” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 6 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 24, 2026 (17%), most recently on May 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All-In Podcast
Closed source
- Probability
- 29% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 4 episodes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
And then the big crazy models, the big closed source models, Anthropic releases Opus 5.5 on September 22nd. OpenAI Astro comes out with Sol and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Closed source |  Polymarket | No |
| May 29, 2026 | Closed source | Polymarket | Yes |
| May 22, 2026 | Closed source | Polymarket | No |
| May 15, 2026 | Closed source | Polymarket | No |
| May 8, 2026 | Closed Source | Polymarket | No |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Closed Source | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Closed source” said on All-In Podcast?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Closed source” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 6 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 24, 2026 (17%), most recently on May 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Closed source” is said on All-In Podcast next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “All-In Podcast: ‘Closed source’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/all-in-podcast/words/closed-source (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-podcast&word=closed%20source · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-podcast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP